A TEMPORAL ANALYSIS OF RAINFALL PATTERNS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF JOS: IMPLICATIONS FOR AGRICULTURE AND CLIMATE RESILIENCE
Kingsley C Fredricks, Mallo T Shukmwan, Mudassir Salihu Yajo, Joel Kingsley Ogwu, Dung Iliya Daniel
✉ Corresponding author: kingsleyfredricks@gmail.com
Abstract
This study investigates the Temporal Analysis of Rainfall Patterns at the University of Jos and Its Implications on Agriculture and Climate Resilience. The aim was to assess temporal changes in rainfall patterns over the past 30 years (1995–2024) and their implications for climate resilience in the region. The study adopted a quantitative research methodology, utilizing secondary rainfall data collected from the University of Jos Meteorological Weather Station. Descriptive statistics, including mean, standard deviation, and coefficient of variation (CV), were used to analyze the rainfall data. Additionally, the seasonality index (SI) and linear regression models were employed to assess rainfall concentration and long-term trends. The theoretical framework was informed by climate change adaptation and vulnerability-resilience theories. The findings revealed significant fluctuations in annual rainfall, with a range from 1,036.9 mm to 1,991.6 mm, and a mean of 1,398.4 mm. The regression analysis indicated a weak negative trend (Y = -1.5094x + 4427.7), suggesting a slight decline in annual rainfall, though the coefficient of determination (R² = 0.0031) highlighted that local climatic factors play a significant role in the observed variability. The seasonality index ranged from 0.47 to 0.84, indicating a distinct seasonal distribution of rainfall. The onset of rainfall varied from late February to mid-May, and the cessation occurred between late September and early December, with a mean rainy season length of 197 days. The study concluded that increasing rainfall variability, influenced by both local topography and broader climate change dynamics, poses significant challenges to agricultural sustainability. Therefore, the study recommends the adoption of climate-resilient agricultural practices, enhanced water resource management, improved climate forecasting, and policy development to ensure long-term agricultural sustainability and food security. Further research is essential to investigate the long-term implications of these changes.
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📅 Published: November 28, 2025
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How to Cite
APA style citation:
Fredricks, K. C., Shukmwan, M. T., Yajo, M. S., Ogwu, J. K., & Daniel, D. I. (2025). A TEMPORAL ANALYSIS OF RAINFALL PATTERNS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF JOS: Implications FOR AGRICULTURE AND CLIMATE RESILIENCE. International Journal of Environmental Sustainability and Interdisciplinary Development Studies (IJESIDS), 1 - 26.
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