International Journal of Entrepreneurship, Business and Interdisciplinary Innovation Studies

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<b>Nonlinear Effect of Exchange Rate on Economic Growth:</b> <b>Empirical Investigation from Variants of Nonlinear Time Series Models</b> <b> </b> <b> </b> | International Journal of Entrepreneurship, Business and Interdisciplinary Innovation Studies (IJEBIIS)

Nonlinear Effect of Exchange Rate on Economic Growth: Empirical Investigation from Variants of Nonlinear Time Series Models    

Nwosu Amarachukwu Nelson

✉ Corresponding author: sirjay360@yahoo.com

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of exchange rate dynamics on economic growth in Nigeria, focusing on the nonlinear relationship between exchange rate fluctuations and macroeconomic variables. The aim of the study is to examine how exchange rate movements affect economic performance, specifically real GDP growth, inflation, and broad money supply. The scope of the study spans from 1990: Q1 to 2021: Q3, utilizing quarterly time series data. The study employs a Threshold Vector Autoregression (TVAR) model, which is well-suited to capture regime-dependent effects and nonlinearities in the exchange rate data. Pre-diagnostic tests confirm the presence of structural breaks in the exchange rate series, informing the selection of threshold parameters for the TVAR model. The findings reveal that the impact of exchange rate movements on economic growth, inflation, and money supply varies significantly between low and high exchange rate regimes. Specifically, real GDP growth reacts differently depending on the prevailing exchange rate regime, with nonlinear effects observed across key macroeconomic variables. The study concludes that nonlinear models, such as TVAR, provide a more accurate and parsimonious fit for exchange rate data compared to linear models. Therefore, the study recommends that policy interventions should be regime-specific, tailoring exchange rate management to the prevailing economic conditions to achieve more stable and sustainable economic growth.

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📅 Published: October 30, 2025

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Citations: 15

How to Cite

APA style citation:
Amarachukwu Nelson, N. (2025). Nonlinear effect of exchange rate on economic growth: Empirical investigation from variants of nonlinear time series models    . International Journal of Entrepreneurship, Business and Interdisciplinary Innovation Studies (IJEBIIS), 163 - 187.

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