IMPACT OF EXCHANGE RATE ON MANUFACTURING SECTOR OUTPUT IN NIGERIA: VAR APPROACH

Abstract

The study examined the impact of exchange rate on manufacturing sector output in Nigeria for the period 1990 to 2024.Data were generated from the database of National Bureau of Statistic (NBS) and Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) 2024 Statistical Bulletin. The research design adopted was the ex-post facto. The analysis was carried out using Vector Auto regression (VAR) method. Results of the analysis showed that real exchange rate (RER) has positive and significant impact on manufacturing sector output. Nominal exchange rate (NER) also has a positive and significant impact on manufacturing sector output during the period under study. While floating exchange rate (FER) have a positive and insignificant impact on manufacturing sector output (MSO) in Nigeria. The study concluded that the performance of the manufacturing sector output is found to be in great need of reforms and improvement because its contribution to the economic growth in Nigeria is low. Consequently, the study recommended Based on the findings, that Nigeria government should come up with a feasible and regulated real exchange rate policy so that the Naira exchange can be effectively advantageous above any foreign currency. It also recommends that government should adopt realistic approach in management of exchange rate policies in a well monitored way to improve the value of our domestic currency in Nigeria. The study further recommends pragmatic changes in floating exchange rate regulatory framework to focus more on Naira and de-dollarized the economy for the better strive of the Naira. The study therefore recommends generally that the government should focus on placing priority where it’s needed by giving subsidies for exchange rate to the manufacturing industries for the betterment of manufacturing sector output in Nigeria